Ladies and Gentlemen,

this morning, I will totally destroy my image. At least, what I believe my image is.

I was always one of the first movers in the new media world. One of the first who welcomed private television in a former public TV environment. One of the first who introduced actively local commercial radios. One of the first who convinced a regional newspaper publisher to think big and to spend half a billion dollars to become a shareholder in Europe's largest Television group. One of the first who aggressively built up online services. And now I'm one of the first who prepare interactive Television in broadband networks.

But being invited to this conference with the title "TV over the Internet", and, even worse, being one of the first speakers, it is very likely that I disappoint all of you who think that the Internet will be a major distribution network for what we call Television.

I have several reasons for my scepticism. First of all, subscribe to a broadband network and look at the quality of the videos coming through the backbone. Buffering time can be rather long, the movie often stops, the quality is awful and the image size reminds you that you need new glasses.

Of course, this may change. Compression technology improves, we distribute more and more content via the strategic edges of the Internet, the capacity of video servers increases dramatically and new standards like MPEG 4 emerge with nice features, like extracting the t-shirt of the baywatch model (dreams come true) and offering it for e-commerce.

However, when we speak about more than some enthusiastic technology freaks, but about the average television viewer, let's assume his name is Joe Cable, then we have to recognize that Joe Cable does not know anything about MPEG and nCube, Akamai and Real, Fantastic and Inktomi. Because he is not interested in how technical the future is going to be, but how convenient.

Joe Cable knows, that Television is a wonderful way to spend the evening, to relax, to laugh, to enjoy. He switches one of his two and a half television sets on and gets immediate entertainment. He will not accept that this becomes in any way complicated, that his television set needs three minutes until the first icon appears, that he ends up in faulty links or that he needs a shockwave plug-in for a horror movie. And he wants a good image quality, full-size, reliable, without any interruptions. Already now snow falling in his satellite dish and preventing him from watching TV leads him into a temporary, but rather deep depression.

That is one of the reasons why, in my opinion, TV coming through the Internet, wide-spread over thousands of websites, will not repeat the success of conventional TV. But there are other reasons, as well. Assume you start your own video service over the Internet. How do you become known? How do you establish brands? How do you finance it? How do you handle thousands of users? And, most important, how do you get content?

No chance for TV over the web? Well, there are niches. For example the music fan page, the documentary, the press conference, the educational program. But what we learn from companies offering such special interest content is, that you should combine all this with strong existing brands rather than trying to build it up from the scratch. And you should already have content rather than trying to buy it from content providers, who, by the way, will not accept that hundreds of websites push their movies or sport events into the net.

All this seems to be totally different, when we speak about interactive Television coming over the last mile, like the upgraded TV cable. Because then it is on the TV screen, it looks like TV, it is presented like in TV and the quality is like TV.

In brief: I do not believe in Television that looks like the Internet. But I stongly believe in Television that works like the Internet.

Just imagine you enter your living room at ten past nine in the evening, switch on your TV and then you choose - whenever you want - a movie, watch your favorite music videos, take a look into the science fiction, the health, the travel or the erotic area. Seconds later you receive the film, the video or music of your choice. And as an internet connection is always behind you can get information parallel to the moving image, or e-mail, or book a trip or make an order or see on the buddy list, who else is watching Television - and what (well, you can switch that off).

This solves the three essential problems of Television. First of all, there is the "time" problem. No-one dictates when I have to read a newspaper or play a CD or start a new book. But if I want to watch something in television, I have to live by the clock. By the way, I can put the newspaper away if I want to, leave the book open at the page I was reading, stop the CD and listen to it again from the beginning. That's not possible with TV. Even my visits to the restrooms are dictated by the commercial breaks. Luckily, there are enough of them. This is going to change tomorrow: Interactive TV will supplement TV programmes with television that is geared to the situation, so that you are not dependent on program listings.

The second problem with traditional television is the problem of the "masses". I can only watch what the masses want to see. Which is why the majority of the ideas for special interest channels have been buried without any pomp and circumstance. Health? Fitness? Travel? Computers? Dogs? Science Fiction? Local News? Yes, there's a little bit of all of it on television in Germany, but only at times when it doesn't annoy other people. Wouldn't it be lovely if TV broadcasters could transmit everything at the same time? The feature film for someone who wants to dream. The Bahamas video for the person who's flying to the Bahamas tomorrow. The health tips for flu victims. The film about training dogs for the man with the barking Schäferhund. And a golf lesson for the guy with this tremendous handicap. It's just not possible. This is going to change. Interactive television will enable the transmission of several different special interest contents simultaneously via one channel - at low cost and without the need of producing 24 hours of content.

The third problem with traditional television is that it's strongly opposed to buying. I'd like to have lots of products I see on the screen. I'd purchase them spontaneously, too. But this isn't possible. Interactive TV makes it possible to shop in your living room by using just a few keys. This means a big breakthrough for e-commerce. At the left hand a glass of red wine, at the right hand some cheese in the middle the remote control - isn't that a nice ambiance for e-commerce?

But: Also this form of interactive TV has to be done in the right way. Convenience, reliability, easy navigation is decisive. You have to avoid to establish a jungle of content. Instead, there must be a consistent, attractive, multifunctional service on the TV screen. Don't build up movie archives. The killer application is not "Movies on Demand". The killer application is the combination of Information, Communication, Education, Entertainment and E-Commerce in the same medium. This is "The Broadband Application Pentagon".

Television that looks like the Internet? My answer is a doubtful "no". Television that works like the Internet? My answer is: Yes, go ahead, that's the future.

Thank you very much.